In this blog, Professor Patrick Diamond marks the publication of The Challenge Ahead for Starmer's Labour, considers how Labour could move beyond 'tackling short-term crises' in government, and argues that it must articulate 'a compelling story' about Britain's future.
Labour's leader, Sir Keir Starmer, will look back on the last 12 months as a period of remarkable political success. After all, Starmer has dispatched two Tory prime ministers. His party remains well ahead in the polls. After the debacle of Liz Truss's 'Mini Budget', the Conservatives are suffering a catastrophic collapse in their reputation for economic competence, echoing Britain's ignominious departure from the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) in 1992. Meanwhile, Starmer maintains that his party has ditched the policy and presentational 'negatives' which led to Labour's historic defeat in 2019. Recent by-election results have bolstered the party's confidence that it will secure an overall majority, despite the electoral mountain still to climb.
Those who wish to see a Labour victory at the next election must nonetheless remember just how difficult it is for the party to secure an outright victory. Over the last century, Labour has been in opposition far more frequently than in government. Having been out of office, it secured workable majorities only in 1945 (following the extraordinary experience of the wartime coalition), 1966, and 1997. While the party's tribal identity bound it together in hard times, it invariably proved a barrier to constructing a broad-based electoral coalition uniting all communities and classes.
Moreover, while Labour may have recovered electorally, there are many in the party's ranks - including senior members of the Shadow Cabinet - who acknowledge Labour has not yet defined a coherent national project that crystallises its mission and vision for Britain. They recognise Labour's desire to protect core public services, helping those hit hardest by the cost-of-living crisis. They acknowledge the steps taken to delineate a coherent plan for climate investment through the Green New Deal. Yet they wonder: why would the UK be any different after five years of Labour in power? What is the party's diagnosis of Britain's failings and how to tackle them? And what is Labour's long-term agenda that will ensure it is in power for more than a brief interregnum, transforming the political landscape?
Given the calamities currently afflicting the UK - from industrial strife to inflation - it is apparent that a Labour government will initially be focused on crisis management. Outside the European Union, the UK economy is buffeted by structural shocks which have depleted its underlying productive capacity. Rising inflation is destroying the standard of living, further shifting the balance of power from labour to capital. The stage is set for escalating industrial conflict. Meanwhile, public services are perceptibly crumbling. The NHS is afflicted by record waiting lists. Education has disappeared almost entirely from the public agenda, while child poverty is soaring. Never mind the abstraction of fashioning a political project which excites opinion formers and left commentators in the liberal media. Labour will have to deal with a daunting legacy of immediate economic and social problems.
All that said, it is clear that to be a success in government, the party must articulate a compelling story about the future of Britain. Above all, Labour needs to demonstrate that in tackling short-term crises, it can build a bridge towards a more prosperous and sustainable future for the UK by making decisive policy choices in government.
The first priority is the economy. The party needs a long-term agenda for reform focused on 'predistribution' that tilts the balance of advantage in the labour market from employers to workers. There should be a framework for social partnership with the trade unions where wage claims are matched by agreements on efficiency and productivity, particularly in hard-pressed services such as the NHS. In an age of technological disruption, workers must be supported to upgrade their skills. Macro-economic management must achieve stability but not at the expenses of vital public investment and future growth, notably in the climate transition.
Secondly, energy security. A Labour government must address the root causes of the insecurity arising from Putin's illegal war in Ukraine, investing in the UK's energy infrastructure. Britain also requires the largest domestic retrofit programme in housing since World War Two. Labour must show that its ministers have the ambition and willpower to achieve results where past governments have failed. Meanwhile, the party must consider transferring energy utilities, notably electricity, water and gas, back into the public sphere. These industries need not be directly owned and managed by central government. They should be run as independent public corporations akin to the BBC. It is clear private ownership isn't working.
Thirdly, the social contract. Universal public services will only remain viable if there is greater emphasis on building resilience through effective prevention. Health policy must tackle the underlying causes of ill-health. Far greater radicalism will be necessary in taxing the consumption of sugar and harmful foods. In education, early intervention by age five through high-quality childcare and early years provision is critical to ensuring all children are equipped to learn.
Finally, Britain's role in the world. Labour must build a new relationship between the UK and the European Union. The polarised debate between those who voted 'Leave' or 'Remain' is an anachronism. All sides accept that Britain has left the European Union. The task now is to find an economic partnership that works for all sides. It is right that the initial focus should be on strengthening the current Withdrawal Agreement which is due to be reviewed in 2025. Yet over the course of the next Parliament, all options should be on the table, including the UK rejoining a customs union or the Single Market. The priority is to safeguard British jobs and livelihoods.
Addressing such challenges will entail strengthening public institutions, safeguarding democracy while devolving power. The world the next Labour government confronts will be defined by tumult and uncertainty. Even so, merely focusing on managing crises would be a grave error. The party must define a national project by which it pivots from dealing with short-term shocks to reshaping the long-term economic and social landscape of the UK. Labour's strategy must be shaped by the historical ideal of social democracy: reconciling growth and security.
Patrick Diamond is Professor of Public Policy at Queen Mary University of London and the Director of the Mile End Institute. The Institute's latest pamphlet, The Challenge Ahead for Starmer's Labour, is published on Monday 19 December 2022.