With a new poll putting Reform one point ahead of the Conservative Party, Mary Honeyball argues that the rise of the 'hard right' across the EU will empower populists in the Conservative and Reform parties. With just over a week until polling day, Honeyball calls on the mainstream parties to get to grips with the growing popularity of Nigel Farage and Reform.
A poll by Redfield and Wilson published yesterday shows Nigel Farage’s Reform Party one point ahead of the Conservatives despite his support for Putin’s war on Ukraine. The latest BBC poll tracker has only a three point gap between Reform and the Tories with the former on 17 per cent and the Conservatives on 20. Labour is, of course, still well ahead with 41 per cent. These polls indicate that the country could be in for a very torrid time. While the idea of Farage speaking at the dispatch box at Prime Minister’s Questions is pure fantasy, he now has a far stronger platform than he had at the beginning of the election campaign in that he will more than likely be in the House of Commons, albeit with either no other Reform MPs or at the most two or three. Having seen Farage operate in the European Parliament and followed the way he built up UKIP then the Brexit Party, I believe it would be folly to underestimate such a consummate politician who is ruthless, determined and utterly unprincipled.
Unlike many UK commentators, I take the view that the rise of the hard right across the EU in the June elections to the European Parliament will benefit hard-right populists in this country. Marine le Pen’s Rassemblement National’s astonishing performance at 31 per cent of the vote in France led the way with Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy taking 30 per cent, the Dutch PVV under Gert Wilders 17.7 per cent and the Alternative fur Deutschland 15.9 per cent in Germany plus other smaller gains across the EU. Following these results, the indication is that 134 seats in the 720 member Parliament will go to the two hard right political groups – the European Conservatives and Reformists and the Identity and Democracy Group. There are another 97 MEPs who do not at yet belong to any political group but several of them may well, judging by past experience, be aligned with the hard right. The two large groups – the centre-right European People’s Party and the centre-left Socialists and Democrats - will have 189 and 136 members respectively. Shockingly, the hard right is as strong as the centre-left socialists. While Britain is now some way away from the European Union, it is clear that hard-right success is a pan-European phenomenon.
Since we are also faced with the increasing possibility of another Trump presidency in the United States, it is now clear that the move to the extremes of right-wing politics is a global phenomenon. Much of what, for ease of reference, can be called the western world is turning away from liberal democracy to nativist strong man/woman alternatives. Britain with its long established right-wing press and, more recently, GB News is especially vulnerable to the rise of right-wing populism. In 2019 the Brexit Party under Nigel Farage won more of the UK seats than any other party in the last European elections before Britain left the EU. That the hard right could win under the European Parliament proportional voting system means that, painful though it is to say, the main factor preventing Nigel Farage currently gaining more than a very few, if any, seats in the House of Commons is Britain’s first past the post voting system which penalises small parties.
First past the post does not, however, discourage the man himself who receives more than his fair share of publicity. Since becoming Reform leader, Farage has been a constant presence on our television screens, a state of affairs which appears to be perfectly legal despite Britain’s strict election rules which in other areas of political activity require balance with no one party gaining an advantage. News reports, features and editorials in print are not subject to electoral law while Ofcom regulates TV and radio. Charisma, which Farage undoubtedly possesses, seemingly trumps serious debate. Meanwhile, Farage himself, no doubt helped by his ultra-right allies both in the USA and other foreign countries, has built up a huge social media following.
Farage’s message, albeit delivered by dog whistle, is unapologetically racist as shown in his comments during the seven-way BBC election debate on the Prime Minister’s early exit from the D-day events “if his [Rishi Sunak’s] instinct was the same as the British people’s he would never have contemplated for a moment not being there for the big international ceremony. He’s utterly disconnected in every way.” Farage cleverly makes voters feel more comfortable about their prejudice in classic Donald Trump fashion. He is, of course, aiming to make the 2024 general election all about immigration just as he made Brexit about identity, race and culture seen through the lens of the grand nineteenth century notion of sovereignty. Farage won the greatest battle about the future of the country for eighty years by being xenophobic, loud-mouthed and intolerant, three of the major hallmarks of the populist, nativist hard-right.
Nigel Farage’s post-Brexit path to power is only just beginning. Assuming he wins Clacton, he will be looking at a parliamentary realignment with himself leading a Reform-hard right Conservative grouping whose aim first and foremost will be the aggrandisement of Nigel Farage. Right-wing Tories such as Suella Braverman are openly talking about uniting the right, which would provide a way for Farage, to become, if not prime minister, then an important figure on the inside, swapping his disruptor role for something with considerable power. The results in the European Parliament elections and the fact that Meloni is already in post plus the possibility of Jordan Bardella as French Prime Minister followed by Marine Le Pen becoming President all show that Farage in a leading position is a distinct possibility. The rise of the hard right in the Conservative and Reform parties deserves more attention from mainstream politicians and observers than is currently the case. Politics in Britain tends to move incrementally. Now is the time to wake up and get to grips with what is going on.
Mary Honeyball is Honorary Research Fellow at the Mile End Institute and was Labour Member of the European Parliament for London from 2000 to 2019.