Professor of Plant Genetics and Co-director of MSc Plant and Fungal Taxonomy Diversity
PHd student Marie Henniges worked to build a comprehensive and open access database, working Professor Andrew Leitch, and Dr Ilia J Leitch to predict plant distribution changes; this is to be further developed in collaboration with Dr Silvia Liverani.
Now, researchers can search and analyse taxonomic, ecological and genetic information for thousands of plants in ways that were previously impossible, allowing linkage of key characteristics, such as genome size, to potential future distribution patterns across the UK.
Henniges’ database included as many features of plant biology as possible, including genome sizes, life strategy, species distribution metrics, propensity to hybridise, associated biomes, native status and geographic origin of alien species. Information was organised in decade-long time slices, going back approximately 50 years, across 3,227 species. Using AI alongside the new database, the team were able to predict plant distribution changes in the last 50 years over landscape-scale areas.
Our ability to describe and predict plant distribution was previously limited to small spatial scales, owing to existing technology, data and methods. By using AI and the database, Queen Mary researchers are now able to predict plant distribution changes over the last 50 years over entire landscapes. Thanks to this research, we now know genome size improves the predictive power of species distribution models, probably because plants species with larger genomes have bigger cells. That scaling effect influences nutrient and water-use efficiency, photosynthesis and species responses to climate change and other ecological and human-made challenges.
We can now accurately predict how human pressure will change plant distribution into the future, giving us an idea of where they’re likely to move to as time goes on and understand which plants are more likely to be negatively impacted. For example, we are continually adding nutrients into the soil from car and plane emissions and the use of fertilisers. There is now nowhere in the world that has not received fertilisation. Those extra doses of fertiliser seem to be favouring plants with larger genomes, imperceptibly changing their competitive advantage and hence their distribution in an ever-changing world.
Queen Mary's research supports SDG 15 Life on Land in a way that helps us better understand ecosystem shifts, informing strategies to preserve biodiversity. By creating a comprehensive plant database and analysing the role of plant genome size, researchers can predict how plants will respond to climate change and human impacts, such as increased soil fertilisation. Ultimately, this research can inform more effective management of forests and ecosystems, aiding in the sustainable use of land and protection of biodiversity for the future.
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