March 2015
The table below presents the one year ahead forecasts for quarterly (annualised) GDP growth and CPI inflation estimated using data up to Q3-2014. The forecasts are an average of the projection for the four quarters of 2015. The forecasts are derived using 15 econometric models.
The aim is to provide a wide ranging statistical outlook for the UK economy that is largely free from conditioning assumptions and judgement.
Key highlights
- UK RGDP is expected to grow by 2.72% in 2015. However, the forecast variance is 0.93% across models.
- UK Inflation is expected to be 1.71 in 2015. However, the forecast variance is 1.22 across models.
- In comparison, UK Treasury Independent Consensus Forecasts are 2.6% and 0.9% for UK RGDP and Inflation.
RGDP Growth | Inflation | |||
Mean | Dispersion | Mean | Dispersion | |
Autoregressive Moving Average | 2.27 | [-1.1 ; 5.6] | 2.8 | [-7.9 ; 14.9] |
TVP Factor Augmented VAR | 2.18 | [-1.1 ; 5.4] | 2.47 | [-1.6 ; 6.4] |
Bayesian VAR | 2.77 | [0 ; 5.5] | 2.27 | [-5.9 ; 10.4] |
Threshold VAR with Credit Spreads | 3.82 | [1.6 ; 6.1] | 0.86 | [-6.2 ; 7.9] |
Large Bayesian VAR | 2.52 | [0.1 ; 5] | 1.63 | [-6 ; 9.4] |
Smooth Transition VAR with Credit Spreads | 3.87 | [1 ; 6.7] | 0.49 | [-12.1 ; 13] |
Threshold VAR | 3.2 | [0.4 ; 5.9] | 1.92 | [-5.2 ; 9.1] |
Smooth Transition VAR | 4.52 | [1.7 ; 7.2] | -0.11 | [-7.9 ; 7.7] |
DSGE | 0.27 | [-24.3 ; 24.9] | -0.1 | [-12.6 ; 12.5] |
TVP VAR | 2.39 | [1.1 ; 3.7] | 1.87 | [0.3 ; 3.4] |
Markov Switching VAR | 2.85 | [1.6 ; 4.1] | 3.14 | [-2.2 ; 8.5] |
Mixed Frequency VAR | 2.57 | [-0.6 ; 5.7] | 0.5 | [-5.8 ; 6.8] |
Unobserved Component SV | 2.15 | [1.2 ; 3.1] | 2.85 | [0.1 ; 5.6] |
BVAR Common SV | 2.74 | [1.2 ; 4.3] | 2.52 | [-1.6 ; 6.7] |
BVAR t Disturbances | 2.63 | [0.6 ; 4.6] | 2.49 | [-3.4 ; 8.3] |
Average | 2.72 | 1.71 | ||
Highest | 4.52 | 3.14 | ||
Lowest | 0.27 | -0.11 | ||
Variance | 0.93 | 1.22 | ||
Average: Average of forecasts across Cremfi Forecast. Project Models | ||||
Dispersion: 10% - 90% Quantiles of Forecast Distribution. TVP: Time Varying Parameter, | ||||
DSGE: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, VAR: Vector Autoregressive, SV: Stochastic Volatility |