Forecast Summary 2016
Key Highlights:
UK RGDP is expected to grow by 2.54% in 2016. However, the forecast variance is 0.64% across models.
UK Inflation is expected to be 2.34% in 2016. However, the forecast variance is 1.65 across models.
In comparison, UK Treasury Independent Consensus Forecasts are 2.4% and 1.7% for UK RGDP and Inflation.
Forecasts for the UK Economy 2016
| RGDP Growth | Inflation | |||
| Mean | Dispersion | Mean | Dispersion | |
| Autoregr. Moving Average | 2.39 | [-1.7 - 6.6] | 3.86 | [-6.4 - 15.2] |
| TVP Factor Augmented VAR | 2.58 | [-8.9 - 14.1] | 2.44 | [-5.3 - 10.1] |
| Bayesian VAR | 2.99 | [-0.3 - 6.4] | 2.28 | [-5.8 - 10.4] |
| Fin. Threshold VAR | 2.72 | [-0.9 - 6.2] | 2.20 | [-6.8 - 11.2] |
| Large Bayesian VAR | 2.20 | [-1 - 5.4] | 2.61 | [-5 - 10.1] |
| Fin. Smooth Transition VAR | 2.52 | [-1 - 6] | 5.00 | [-4 - 13.9] |
| Threshold VAR | 3.13 | [-0.4 - 6.5] | 1.05 | [-7.3 - 9.7] |
| Smooth Transition VAR | 4.08 | [0.7 - 7.5] | 2.37 | [-6.6 - 11.4] |
| DSGE | 0.54 | [-24.5 - 25.2] | -0.37 | [-12.8 - 11.9] |
| TVP VAR | 2.70 | [0.1 - 5.4] | 1.92 | [-1.6 - 5.3] |
| Markov Switching VAR | 2.73 | [0.6 - 4.9] | 3.04 | [-2.1 - 8.2] |
| Mixed Frequency VAR | 1.79 | [-2.2 - 5.8] | 1.55 | [-4.7 - 7.8] |
| Unobserved Component SV | 2.64 | [-1.5 - 6.7] | 2.52 | [-2.6 - 7.6] |
| Average | 2.54 | 2.34 | ||
| Highest | 4.08 | 5.00 | ||
| Lowest | 0.54 | -0.37 | ||
| Variance | 0.64 | 1.65 | ||
| Average: Average of forecasts across Cremfi Forecast. Project Models | ||||
| Dispersion: 10% - 90% Quantiles of Forecast Distribution. TVP: Time Varying Parameter, | ||||
| DSGE: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, VAR: Vector Autoregressive, SV: Stochastic Volatility | ||||